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This work was supported by Fundacion SEIMC/GeSIDA. The funders had no role in study design, data collection, data interpretation or writing of the manuscript. JB, JRB, IJ, JC, JP and JRA received funding for research from Plan Nacional de I+D+i 2013-2016 and Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Subdireccion General de Redes y Centros de Investigacion Cooperativa, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades, cofinanced by the European Development Regional Fund A way to achieve Europe, Operative program Intelligent Growth 2014-2020. Spanish AIDS Research Network (RIS) (RD16/0025/0017 (JB), RD16/0025/0018 (JRA), RD16CIII/0002/0006 (IJ)). Spanish Network for Research in Infectious Diseases (REIPI) (RD16/0016/0001 (JRB), RD16/0016/0005 (JC) and RD16/0016/0009 (JP)).

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Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score

Publicat a:Thorax. 76 (9): 920-929 - 2021-09-01 76(9), DOI: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216001

Autors: Berenguer, Juan; Borobia, Alberto M; Ryan, Pablo; Rodriguez-Bano, Jesus; Bellon, Jose M; Jarrin, Inmaculada; Carratala, Jordi; Pachon, Jeronimo; Carcas, Antonio J; Yllescas, Maria; Arribas, Jose R

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To develop and validate a prediction model of mortality in patients with COVID-19 attending hospital emergency rooms.Multivariable prognostic prediction model.127 Spanish hospitals.Derivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single-centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively.Prognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression.30-day mortality.Patients' characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806-0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819-0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0-2 points (0%-2.1%), moderate with 3-5 (4.7%-6.3%), high with 6-8 (10.6%-19.5%) and very high with 9-30 (27.7%-100%).A simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19.© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

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